Blue sheep habitat predicts livestock depredation risk by snow leopards in the trans-himalayas of Nepal

Livestock depredation by large carnivores poses substantial challenges to conservation efforts in the Nepal Himalayas. Here, we examined the key landscape, biotic, and anthropogenic factors influencing livestock depredation by snow leopards (Panthera uncia), with a focus on the role of blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) habitat suitability, their primary wild prey species. We collected 101 blue sheep occurrence records through transect-walk surveys conducted between May 2019 and October 2020 and 116 livestock depredation records through snowball sampling of local herders conducted between July 2018 and May 2020. Using a presence-only maximum entropy modeling approach (MaxEnt), we developed a predictive habitat suitability map of blue sheep, which was subsequently integrated with environmental and anthropogenic variables to model livestock depredation risk and map risk areas across the landscape. To improve model accuracy and reduce bias, we removed highly correlated variables and optimized feature selection using the ENMeval package in R. Our model showed that the habitat suitability of blue sheep was the strongest predictor, contributing 63% to depredation risk. In addition, proximity to corrals and settlements significantly increased the risk of livestock depredation. Blue sheep habitat spans approximately 203 km², while the livestock depredation risk area covers 265 km². The two areas overlap by 194 km², indicating a 73% spatial overlap. The substantial spatial overlap between blue sheep habitat and livestock depredation risk zones suggests that snow leopards may encounter both prey types in the same areas. This overlap highlights the importance of implementing conservation measures to reduce livestock losses and support coexistence.